市场洞察之场景洞察

• What is scenario

  A scenario, thus, is a given cluster of trends and proposed outcomes of the defined uncertainties. All scenarios are based on the same trends, but these are combined with different outcomes for the specified uncertainties. Hence all trends and uncertainties occur in all scenarios.

   

• Scenario type

  

• 场景洞察四步法

• Step 1：多样访谈 Interviews with scenario stakeholders at different levels within the company

  在研讨之前访谈各个层级，各个部门（研发、市场、管理层等等），内外部关键 干系人，收集未来趋势，不确定点，作为下步输入

• Step 2：场景研讨 The scenario workshop

  输出趋势+不确定点，把十几个单点预测整合成三个情景，把情景记录成文

  • Defining and agreeing on trends
  • Defining and agreeing on uncertainties
  • Defining and agreeing on three possible outcomes of each uncertainty
  • Clustering of trends and uncertainties into three scenarios
  • Initiating “descriptions” of the three scenario worlds.

• Step 3：反向研讨 The back-casting workshop

  成员分3组，每组一个场景，站在十年之后往回看，识别关键事件

  

• Step 4：跟踪实施

  主动影响，指导战略，实时跟踪